A single-page index of published research on Collins Research Portal, newest first. Each entry includes its publication date, article link, and summary. Dates are portal publication dates; original publication details and coauthors appear in the linked articles.
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What China and India Learned From the Last Global Energy Crisis
Explore what China and India learned from the last global energy crisis—and how those lessons shape energy security, resilience, and policy today.
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Corpus Christi Water Crisis: Shaping a Resilience Playbook for Texas Cities
Corpus Christi’s water crisis stems from drought-exposed river supplies. The fix starts with planning culture, then rates, groundwater, reuse and desalination.
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Powering and Cooling the AI Boom in the United States
Slides by Gabriel Collins from the Rice University Water Institute’s Water Nexus Conference 2026 on powering and cooling AI data centers in the United States.
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China’s Electrostate Could Erode Deterrence in Asia
China’s electrostate energy security model, backed by a 100-plus days’ oil stockpile, held up in the 2026 Hormuz shock and could embolden action over Taiwan.
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U.S. Re-Industrialization: Mobilizing Local Action and Reallocating Capital to Build National Resilience
30-year Treasury yields more than doubled in 5 years as manufacturing investment fell 6 quarters running. Pension capital could aid U.S. re-industrialization.
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3 Winter Energy Escalations to Watch Between Russia and Ukraine
Russia Ukraine energy war: Moscow will likely hit Ukraine’s grid this winter, yet roughly 75% of Russian dispatchable power lies within 2,000km of Ukraine.
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Are Data Centers Just Another Industrial Asset?
Gabriel Collins asks whether data centers are just another industrial asset in slides presented at the AAPL West Texas Energy Institute on 26 August 2026.
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Singapore Crack Spreads Reflect Iran’s Leverage Over Hormuz Oil Flows
The Singapore gasoil crack spread rebounded to $53.42/bbl on 13 July 2026, 78.4% of Dubai crude, a sign Iran still holds leverage over Hormuz oil flows.
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Will New Iran Sanctions Trigger a Geoeconomic Standoff With China?
After more than 13,000 airstrikes failed to topple Iran’s regime, an “economic D-Day” of Iran sanctions would virtually guarantee a clash with China.
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Atoms for Peace 2.0: The Trilateral Playbook to Stop a Chinese-Russian Nuclear Lock-In.
A US-Japan-Korea nuclear export platform could compete with Rosatom and CNNC for a $500–740 billion market where reactors lock in 60-80 years.
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Russia’s Oil Production Decline Is a Geopolitical Clock
Russia oil production is falling as Western Siberia’s easy oil runs out, eroding Moscow’s power over time but raising the near-term risk of aggression.
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Houthis on Steroids: The Rise of Persistent Maritime Contestation
Iran can now contest the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly at low cost. Daily tanker transits fell from about 60 to single digits; a lasting risk premium is likely.
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The US Cannot Win a Manufacturing War Alone
China makes nearly one-third of world manufacturing output. The US cannot match it alone; US manufacturing must scale with allies to deter war in Asia.
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Russia’s Money Cliff: Paying for War After Petrodollars Vanish
Russia war financing is becoming a liquidity problem: Moscow burns roughly $200 million a day, and less oil money means selling the country itself.
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Blackout Warfare: Defeating Russia’s Strategic Assault on Ukraine’s Electricity Grid
Russia is field-testing blackout warfare on Ukraine’s power grid, firing thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles per month at plants and transformers.
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Barrels and Bombs: How Does Oil Fund Russia’s War Machine?
Russia’s war in Ukraine costs an estimated $190-200 million a day, requiring about 4.0 million bpd of oil exports at $55/bbl, a threshold DeepStrike targets.
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Fentanyl, Rare Earths, Chips, and Climate Change: China’s Strategic Manipulation Playbook
China’s negotiation playbook swaps contingent pledges on fentanyl and rare earths for concrete U.S. concessions, like cutting tariffs from 57% to 47%.
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A New Era of Energy Warfare
Energy warfare: Russian strikes have left Ukraine’s dispatchable power at probably 1/3 of its pre-war level, while Ukraine hits Russia’s oil and gas.
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Will Great Power Competition Yield a Nuclear Renaissance?
China and Russia have nearly 50 GW of nuclear capacity under construction, roughly half the U.S. fleet, as the U.S. trails in a global nuclear renaissance.
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China Builds an Energy Fortress
China energy security strategy: coal, bigger crude stockpiles, overland gas, renewables and nuclear build a fortress where emissions cuts come second.
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China Mobilizes Its Energy Sector For Great Power Competition and Global Disorder
China’s energy system is now about 1.6 times the size of the U.S. system, and Beijing treats energy security as self-reliance for great power competition.
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Physical Sanctions Versus Paper Sanctions: Ukraine’s Strike Campaign Against Russia’s Oil Industry
Ukraine strikes on Russian oil infrastructure reach more than 1,000 km, with FP-1 drones reportedly built at about 100 a day, as paper sanctions fall short.
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Permian Basin: The Next AI Data Center Frontier
Permian Basin AI data centers could total 25 to 50 GW by pairing the region’s low-cost gas with wind, solar, batteries and future nuclear power.
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Three Ways the Alaska Summit May Undermine Ukraine Peace Efforts and U.S. Interests
A Trump-Putin Alaska summit is unlikely to end the Ukraine war, and it risks sidelining Europe and handing Russia prestige without requiring a ceasefire.
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Comparing Water and Electricity Load Growth in Texas
Texas electricity load has generally grown much faster than water use over 20 years; whether Texas water load growth will follow suit is still an open question.
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Is Nuclear Deterrence Eroding in the Face of Proliferating Conventional Deep Strike Capabilities?
Ukraine may have damaged 1/3 of Russia’s strategic bombers with no nuclear response, a sign conventional deep strike may be eroding nuclear deterrence.
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Cross Texas Water Grid: Key Challenges and Economic Costs
A cross-Texas water grid could need 6.9 gigawatts of power, and water from a 600-mile pipeline could cost about $4,000 per acre-foot.
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Food-Water-Energy Nexus in the Arabian Gulf
Arabian Gulf food security favors imports and storage: one tonne of wheat grown with desalinated water can need up to 47,000 kWh of energy.
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Potential Energy & Food Consequences of Indus Waters Treaty Suspension
India’s 2025 suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty could reduce flows to Pakistan plants with about one-third of its dispatchable power and to its grain farms.
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Small Modular Nuclear Reactors for Desalination and Reliable Electricity in the Permian Basin
Small modular reactors could supply power and heat to desalinate some of the roughly 25 million barrels per day of Permian Basin produced water.
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America Should Lead the Fight Against Global Energy Poverty
Gabriel Collins argues the U.S. should lead the fight against global energy poverty, using its resources and technology to strengthen its strategic position.
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Energy Poverty and Water Driven Mortality
Across more than 200 countries, energy poverty tracks with higher deaths from unsafe water, and Sub-Saharan Africa shows the highest death rates.
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Powerful New Data and Insights on Investments in Mexico by China-Linked Entities
A census of 200+ PRC-linked assets finds about $15 billion of Chinese investment in Mexico, far above the roughly $2 billion officially reported.
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Prospective Costs and Consequences of Insufficient Water Infrastructure Investment in Texas
Texas water infrastructure underinvestment already costs about $2 billion a year in lost water; $5 billion a year in investment is cheap drought insurance.
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How Floating LNG Can Aid Cuba’s Electricity Issues
One million tonnes a year of LNG through a floating regasification unit could fuel two 330 MW plants and help ease Cuba’s electricity crisis.
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10 Key Dimensions of a Resilient Global Energy Transition
The energy transition will be slower than hoped and needs diverse technologies; China, India and the US drove almost 2/3 of 2010-2019 energy growth.
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Geothermal Energy in Alaska: A Strategic Opportunity
Alaska geothermal energy could anchor U.S. Pacific Rim energy vector if first-of-a-kind demonstration projects de-risk the resource and aid allies like Taiwan.
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Food and Crude: Biofuels Expansion and the Energy-Food-Water Nexus
Producing 1 million barrels/day of corn ethanol likely needs about 27 million acres, showing why biofuels expansion strains the energy-food-water nexus.
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Earthmover Usage Reflects Stagnation in China’s Economy
Komatsu data on China earthmover usage, in monthly machine use hours, point to economic stasis relative to 6-7 years ago, a hard-to-manipulate economic gauge.
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Energy and Food Abundance: A Strategic Vision for The Next 50 Years of Prosperity
Cold War lessons show US energy and food abundance builds national power. US policy can shape where roughly $100 trillion in investable capital flows.
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Hold the Line Through 2035: A Better Strategy For Competition With China
A U.S. strategy for China that imposes costs on revisionism through 2035, when demographic decline and debt over 300% of GDP likely curb Beijing’s power.
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Asian Countries To Lead Global Energy Transitions in 2024 and 2025
The Asia energy transition sets the global pace in 2024-2025 as India, China and Indonesia pair renewables with coal for 7 billion non-OECD people.
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A Better Ukraine Electricity Strategy
Russian strikes cut Ukraine’s dispatchable power to about 1/3 of pre-war levels. Distributed generation backed by war risk insurance can close the gap.
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An Electricity Strategy for Long War in Ukraine
A Ukraine electricity strategy for long war: disperse generation with gas turbine gensets, because a centralized grid is highly vulnerable to Russian strikes.
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Energy Stockpiling as A China Strategic Warning Indicator
China’s oil storage capacity tops 1.8 billion barrels, about 30% above the US. Gabriel Collins shows how China energy stockpiling can signal war preparation.
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Thinking About Global Energy Transitions in the 2020s
Gabriel Collins argues the global energy transition, underway for 200 years, will likely move slower than hoped as cost, scale and reliability bind.
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It’s Time for the US to Take Out Hezbollah and Houthi Anti-Ship Missiles
Hezbollah and Houthi anti-ship missiles, including the Mach 2.6 P-800 Oniks, threaten US warships. The authors argue for pre-emptive US strikes now.
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Great Power Rivalry & Evolving Risks For Multinational Corporations
The 1991 to mid-2010s golden age of globalization has closed. US-China rivalry now raises risks for multinational corporations, likely for decades.
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Beijing’s Bloodless Takeover of Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industry and How to Stop It
A scenario of how China could take over Taiwan’s semiconductor industry without invading, as coercion cuts TSMC’s value from $700 billion to $300 billion.
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China-Russia Strategic Cooperation: Dangerous Impacts in the Arctic and North Pacific
China-Russia Arctic cooperation could give China access to Russian air bases and submarine ports like Rybachiy, but Russian distrust may limit such moves.
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US LNG Is a National Security Asset
US LNG exports are a national security asset. By 2028, US exporters could plausibly supply considerably more gas than Russia’s prewar pipelines to Europe.
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Want an Electric Pickup to Tow Like a Ford F-250? You’ll Need a Battery That Weighs As Much As An F-150 Raptor
Electric pickup towing runs into physics: matching a Ford F-250 would take a battery weighing as much as an F-150 Raptor, per two embedded presentations.
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Russia’s Missile & Drone Strikes on Ukraine: 10 July 2023 Update
Russia’s missile and drone strikes on Ukraine total about 6,500, likely close to three times the US strike missiles fired in the 2003 Iraq invasion.
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Military Support for Ukraine–Some Historical Perspective
US military aid to Ukraine, about $40 billion or 0.4% of GDP, sits within historical norms and has helped cost Russia nearly 70% of its prewar tanks.
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China Is Now Producing More Coal Than Ever (And Probably, The Highest Level in Human History)
China’s raw coal production hit 420 million tonnes in March 2023, a national record and likely the highest monthly output ever recorded.
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Competition First? Anchoring U.S. Climate & Energy Strategy Amidst Geostrategic Competition With China
Gabriel Collins makes the case for anchoring U.S. climate and energy strategy in competition with China, a case made more salient by passage of the IRA.
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Holding The Line Against China’s Revisionist Threat: The Next 12 Years
A slide deck on U.S. China strategy to 2035, based on Collins and Erickson’s 2020 Baker Institute study on offsetting PRC revisionism in the Asia-Pacific.
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Putin’s Ukraine Invasion: Turbocharging Sino-Russian Collaboration in Energy, Maritime Security, and Beyond?
Putin’s Ukraine war is deepening China-Russia cooperation: Beijing will tap Russian oil and gas, and Russian undersea tech could tip the Indo-Pacific balance.
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U.S. Should Urgently Transfer 10% of Its M1 Abrams Stocks to Ukraine
The U.S. holds about 3,500 stored M1A1/A2 tanks. Sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine would serve U.S. security better than leaving them in depots.
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Ukraine Needs Long-Range Firepower for Victory
Long-range strikes could help Ukraine disrupt Russian airfields, logistics, and military production beyond the reach of air defenses, while managing escalation risks.
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COP27, Eurasia, and the Energy Transition Valley of Death
COP27 left Eurasia, two-thirds of global energy use, facing an energy transition valley of death: national interests, scale, finance, and domestic politics.
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The Global Energy Transition’s Looming Valley of Death
Gabriel Collins and Michelle Foss argue the energy transition valley of death has three stages, and the late 2020s will likely decide its success or failure.
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U.S. Corporations and China-Taiwan War Risk
China-Taiwan war risk means U.S. firms should prepare Taiwan staff to shelter for 30 days or longer, because evacuation once fighting starts may be impossible.
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16 Rapidly Implementable Policy Options to Help Taiwan Win Through Denial
Sixteen rapid options for Taiwan defense by denial, from 250 stored M109A6 guns to mines, HIMARS, drone boats, and 60 days of hardened fuel stocks.
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Will France Unlock the Door to an Iberian Express Gas Pipeline?
An Iberian Express gas pipeline could link 30-40 BCM/yr of spare Iberian LNG import capacity to Central Europe, but it needs French consent.
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Long-Range Ukrainian Kamikaze Drones Would Raise Costs of Russia’s Infrastructure War
Ukraine kamikaze drones with 1,000 km range at $50,000-$100,000 each could make Russia pay for its infrastructure war, Collins and Bronk argue.
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Preparing for Long Wars and Great Power Competitions: Lessons from Ukraine
Russia-Ukraine war lessons for the US: industrial war burns munitions and manpower fast, and a Taiwan fight would be worse, so prepare for a long conflict.
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It’s Not Just About Guns and Rockets–American Gas, Oil, and Grains Also Make Key Security Contributions
American gas, oil and grains make key security contributions: a food, energy and water abundance agenda at home makes the US a better partner abroad.
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Energy Security in the Atlantic and Pacific: Can LNG Meet the Gathering Storm
Russia’s gas blockade of Europe shows $250 billion per year of gas can imperil a $20 trillion economy. Collins expects at least two winters of energy tension.
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U.S. Military Assistance to Ukraine in Perspective
U.S. military aid to Ukraine, roughly $15 billion via PDA and USAI, is a small fraction of what the U.S. spent in Iraq and Afghanistan, yet has achieved more.
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9 Potential U.S./NATO Responses if Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine
If Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the U.S. and NATO need a damaging conventional response: 9 options, from sinking Black Sea ships to seizing assets.
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U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine Now Exceeds $14 Billion Since August 2021
U.S. continues ramping up military assistance to Ukraine.
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Is China Militarizing Its Oil and Gas Security Policies?
China oil and gas security still rests on seaborne crude, more Russian gas, and U.S. control of the maritime commons beyond East Asia.
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Gas Geoeconomics Essential to Win the “Long War” In Ukraine—And Asia
Russia’s gas coercion since early 2021 erodes Europe’s capacity to sustain NATO defense mobilization. Without war-footing gas policies, time favors Moscow.
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Bear, Meet Porcupine: Unconventional Deterrence for Ukraine
Gabriel Collins’s December 2021 Defense One essay on unconventional deterrence for Ukraine, framed as a porcupine facing a bear. Read it in full.
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Can America Trust China to Fight Climate Change?
China’s coal use, nearly 55 percent of the global total in 2020, shows why US-China climate cooperation runs second to Beijing’s geopolitical aims.
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Technological Diversity is the Better Approach to Energy Addition and Transition Efforts
The energy transition needs a diverse technology portfolio, not winners picked by fiat, since energy underpins water and food security worldwide.
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Is an Oil Blockade Against China Viable?
An oil blockade against China could succeed militarily, yet political, economic, and financial strains may make it untenable before it takes full effect.
Research tools and recurring publications
- Energy Disruption Dashboard — Tracking energy infrastructure disruptions.
- Datacenter Disruption Dashboard — Tracking disruptions affecting datacenter infrastructure.