Key takeaways
- Russia’s war in Ukraine is becoming a liquidity problem for Moscow as well as a military one, according to Gabriel Collins.
- Moscow burns roughly $200 million a day, a spending rate that depends heavily on Russia’s oil income.
- Russian oil revenue is exposed when buyers pay less or when fewer barrels flow because of attacks and ship seizures.
- Collins argues that if oil money dries up, the Kremlin will have to start selling the country itself to keep paying for the war.
Russia’s war in Ukraine isn’t just a military problem — it’s also becoming a liquidity problem. Moscow burns roughly $200 million a day. When oil buyers pay less or fewer barrels flow due to attacks and ship seizures, the Kremlin will have to start selling the country itself.
Suggested Citation: Collins, Gabe. “Russia’s Money Cliff: Paying for War After PetroDollars Vanish.” The Sinews of Civilization: Fire, Food, Water, Force, Substack, 5 February 2026. https://gabrielcollins.substack.com/p/russias-money-cliff-paying-for-war
Full PDF of article here
Frequently asked questions
How much does Russia spend on the war in Ukraine per day?
Gabriel Collins estimates that Moscow burns roughly $200 million a day. He argues this spending rate turns the war into a liquidity problem as well as a military one, because the Kremlin relies on oil income that lower prices, attacks, and ship seizures can all reduce.
What happens to Russia’s war effort if oil revenue falls?
Collins argues the Kremlin will have to start selling the country itself. With Moscow burning roughly $200 million a day, any drop in oil income, whether from buyers paying less or from fewer barrels reaching market, puts direct pressure on its ability to keep funding the war in Ukraine.
Why could Russia’s oil income decline?
Russia’s oil income is exposed on both price and volume, according to the article. Buyers can pay less for Russian barrels, and fewer barrels can flow because of attacks and ship seizures. Either outcome cuts the revenue Moscow uses to pay for a war costing roughly $200 million a day.
What is Russia’s money cliff?
Russia’s money cliff is Gabriel Collins’s description of the risk Moscow faces when oil money can no longer cover war costs. He frames the war as a growing liquidity problem, with Moscow burning roughly $200 million a day and, once petrodollars vanish, having to start selling the country itself.
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