Key takeaways
- Russia’s war in Ukraine is becoming a liquidity problem as well as a military one, according to energy and security analyst Gabriel Collins.
- Moscow burns roughly $200 million a day on its war in Ukraine, which leaves the Kremlin heavily dependent on steady oil revenue.
- Russia’s oil income shrinks when buyers pay less or when fewer barrels flow because of attacks and ship seizures.
- If oil money falls, Collins argues, the Kremlin will have to start selling the country itself to keep paying for the war.
Russia’s war in Ukraine isn’t just a military problem — it’s also becoming a liquidity problem. Moscow burns roughly $200 million a day. When oil buyers pay less or fewer barrels flow due to attacks and ship seizures, the Kremlin will have to start selling the country itself.
Suggested Citation: Collins, Gabe. “Russia’s Money Cliff: Paying for War After PetroDollars Vanish.” The Sinews of Civilization: Fire, Food, Water, Force, Substack, 5 February 2026. https://gabrielcollins.substack.com/p/russias-money-cliff-paying-for-war
Full PDF of article here
Summary
Gabriel Collins argues that Russia’s war is turning into a liquidity problem. Moscow spends roughly $200 million a day on the war. Its most liquid reserve is about $350 billion in gold, while the National Wealth Fund’s roughly $100 billion in yuan, Sberbank shares and other assets might realistically fetch about $50 billion in a crisis, with each $1 billion funding three to four days of fighting. Oil and gas export revenue of about $300 million a day in November and December 2025 fell by half in January 2026. Because recruitment depends on generous pay and death benefits, a sustained cash squeeze would force the Kremlin to choose between courting hyperinflation and scaling back the war; higher oil prices, for example from an Iran war, would buy it breathing room. “Empires rarely lose wars on the battlefield first. They lose them when the money runs out.”
Read the original post on The Sinews of Civilization: https://gabrielcollins.substack.com/p/russias-money-cliff-paying-for-war
Frequently asked questions
How much does Russia spend on the war in Ukraine each day?
Moscow burns roughly $200 million a day on its war in Ukraine, according to Gabriel Collins. That rate of spending is why he describes the war as a liquidity problem as well as a military one, since the Kremlin depends on oil revenue to keep paying for it and that revenue is vulnerable.
How does Russia pay for the war in Ukraine?
Russia relies on oil money to fund its war in Ukraine. Collins argues that this dependence turns the conflict into a liquidity problem, because Moscow burns roughly $200 million a day and its income rises or falls with what oil buyers pay and how many barrels actually flow to market.
What could cut Russia’s oil revenue?
Two pressures could cut Russia’s oil revenue: buyers paying less for its oil, and fewer barrels flowing because of attacks and ship seizures. Collins argues that either one squeezes the cash Moscow needs to sustain a war that consumes roughly $200 million a day, pushing Russia toward a financial cliff.
What happens if Russia’s oil money runs out?
If oil revenue falls far enough, Collins argues, the Kremlin will have to start selling the country itself to keep financing the war. He frames this as Russia’s money cliff, a scenario in which war spending of roughly $200 million a day can no longer be covered by petrodollars.
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