With the NATO Summit kicking off tomorrow, it is important to think both about how to arm Ukraine today and also how to help Kyiv rebuild tomorrow. Russia’s destruction and harassment campaign will be front and center in this planning and strategy process. Mobilizing capital–and especially, deploying it–will be a fraught exercise if each night potentially promises a swarm of Shahed drones or cruise missiles.
For perspective, consider that Russia has likely already fired close to three times as many “strike munitions” (defined as rockets/missiles larger than 300mm caliber and long-range loitering munitions/drones) at Ukraine as the US did during the intense opening phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003.
Note that this chart is likely an undercount, since while Ukrainian forces report drones and missiles intercepted, we do not always know how many were launched in the first place. Furthermore, the chart excludes the millions of artillery and MLRS rocket rounds and hundreds (or more) Lancet loitering munitions Russian forces have fired to date.
A multi-year air defense challenges lies ahead. The stakes are high, as the air shield will help determine the pace, location, and cost of reconstruction efforts that Ukraine will need to emerge from the war and cement the economic foundations for future prosperity and resilience.
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