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•Gas geoeconomics is an essential prerequisite for victory in Ukraine, U.S. credibility in Asia, and should be one of Washington’s top national security priorities.
•Russia’s invasion of Ukraine credibly reflects reveals a desire to re-establish Moscow-centric imperium through force of arms, potentially along the approximate territorial parameters of the mid-19th Century Russian Empire in Europe.
•Rolling back the Kremlin’s existing war of conquest and deterring future depredations will require a level of NATO defense-industrial mobilization not seen since the 1980s. Present sanctions efforts, even if deepened, cannot compensate for NATO’s undersized munitions stockpiles and insufficient ability to recapitalize forces and potentially, timely replace combat losses—three elements critical for deterrence.
•Energy insecurity corrodes the economic and political foundations needed to sustain defense-industrial mobilization. Russia is thus intensifying its unprecedented efforts dating from early 2021 to use gas as an instrument to coerce and destabilize prime customers in Western Europe. Unless Europe adopts proactive, war footing gas security policies, “General Time” will be on Russia’s side.
Suggested Citation:
Gabriel Collins, Anna Mikulska, and Steven Miles, “Gas Geoeconomics Essential to Win the ‘Long War’ In Ukraine—And Asia,” Baker Institute Research Presentation, September 2022
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