Key takeaways
- An “economic D-Day” sanctions package against Iran, if it is to work, virtually guarantees a clash with China, according to Gabriel Collins.
- Rigorous US enforcement against Chinese entities could precipitate the direct US-PRC clash that Washington and Beijing have so far managed to avoid.
- After more than 13,000 airstrikes failed to topple Iran’s regime, economic warfare will be hard pressed to reach its strategic endstate, especially a shifting one.
- Beijing will likely bet, given the 2025 U.S. tariff climbdown, that Washington will back down once China applies geoeconomic counterpressure.
- Sanctions on Iran could accelerate de-dollarization, forces Collins judges far larger and potentially more consequential than the threats Iran posed.
After more than 13,000 airstrikes couldn’t topple the Iranian regime, now enhanced economic pressure gets a turn. It takes center stage against an Iran that has spent nearly 50 years building a resilience economy to resist external pressure and which has shown it is prepared to gun down thousands of its own citizens to stay in power. Put bluntly, economic warfare is going to be hard pressed to achieve the strategic endstate sought, particularly if that endstate is a moving target–as has been the case thus far in this conflict.
Point #1: If an “economic D-Day” sanctions package against Iran is to work, it virtually guarantees a clash with China.
Point #2: Washington and Beijing have thus far kept the war at arm’s length insofar as the bilateral relationship is concerned. That’s going to become harder to do
Point #3: And if the U.S. tariff climbdown in 2025 is any indication, Beijing will be quietly betting that Washington will huff and puff but ultimately back down once China applies geoeconomic counterpressure.
China still needs a lot of oil and getting it is an important national interest. Sanctions could accelerate de-dollarization and other major macroeconomic evolutions.
Rigorous enforcement against Chinese entities could also precipitate the direct US-PRC clash that each side has thus far managed to avoid. These are all forces that are far larger than Iran and potentially, far more consequential than the threats it posed.
Frequently asked questions
Will new Iran sanctions lead to a clash with China?
Gabriel Collins argues that an “economic D-Day” sanctions package against Iran, if it is to work, virtually guarantees a clash with China. China still needs a lot of oil, and getting it is an important national interest, so rigorous enforcement against Chinese entities could precipitate the direct US-PRC clash both sides have so far avoided.
Can economic sanctions topple the Iranian regime?
Collins judges that economic warfare will be hard pressed to achieve its strategic endstate against Iran. More than 13,000 airstrikes failed to topple the regime, which has spent nearly 50 years building a resilience economy and has shown it will gun down thousands of its own citizens to stay in power. A shifting endstate makes success harder still.
How is China likely to respond to tougher US sanctions on Iran?
Beijing will likely bet that Washington will huff and puff but ultimately back down once China applies geoeconomic counterpressure. Collins draws that inference from the U.S. tariff climbdown in 2025. Washington and Beijing have so far kept the Iran war at arm’s length in their bilateral relationship, but tighter sanctions will make that harder.
Could Iran sanctions accelerate de-dollarization?
Yes, Collins warns that sanctions on Iran could accelerate de-dollarization and other major macroeconomic evolutions. He argues these forces, together with the risk of a direct US-China clash, are far larger than Iran and potentially far more consequential than the threats Iran itself posed, so the sanctions decision carries stakes well beyond the conflict.
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