After more than 13,000 airstrikes couldn’t topple the Iranian regime, now enhanced economic pressure gets a turn. It takes center stage against an Iran that has spent nearly 50 years building a resilience economy to resist external pressure and which has shown it is prepared to gun down thousands of its own citizens to stay in power. Put bluntly, economic warfare is going to be hard pressed to achieve the strategic endstate sought, particularly if that endstate is a moving target–as has been the case thus far in this conflict.
Point #1: If an “economic D-Day” sanctions package against Iran is to work, it virtually guarantees a clash with China.
Point #2: Washington and Beijing have thus far kept the war at arm’s length insofar as the bilateral relationship is concerned. That’s going to become harder to do
Point #3: And if the U.S. tariff climbdown in 2025 is any indication, Beijing will be quietly betting that Washington will huff and puff but ultimately back down once China applies geoeconomic counterpressure.
China still needs a lot of oil and getting it is an important national interest. Sanctions could accelerate de-dollarization and other major macroeconomic evolutions.
Rigorous enforcement against Chinese entities could also precipitate the direct US-PRC clash that each side has thus far managed to avoid. These are all forces that are far larger than Iran and potentially, far more consequential than the threats it posed.
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