Key takeaways
- Energy systems are now high on the target list as industrial nation states once again fight each other, with the Russia-Ukraine war as the clearest case.
- Ukraine’s dispatchable electricity generation capacity is probably 1/3 of its pre-war level after Russian attacks on its electricity and gas systems.
- Russia launches 600-800 drones and dozens of missiles on its biggest nights, while Ukraine can muster perhaps half that number for mass strikes.
- Ukraine targets Russia’s oil and gas systems as the economic center of gravity funding the Kremlin’s war machine, and the Russian power grid may be next.
- Utilities in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are physically hardening power substations and other important infrastructure as frontline states focus on resilience.
Sharing my prepared remarks from a fantastic event hosted at the SMU Cox Business School yesterday by the European American Chamber of Commerce.
As industrial nation states now once again shoot at each other, energy systems are high on the target list.
Ongoing warfare between Russian and Ukraine emphasizes this reality. Russia works to destroy Ukraine’s electricity and gas systems to ruin the country’s industrial capacity and try to break its civilian population’s will to resist. Ukraine now targets Russia’s oil and gas systems because they are the economic center of gravity that funds the Kremlin’s war machine. The Russian power grid may be next and coming months will be tumultuous.
Both sides now possess mass-production deep strike capabilities. Russia launches 600-800 drones and dozens of missiles on its biggest nights, while Ukraine can now muster perhaps half that number for mass strikes. Russia can range targets in all of Ukraine with munitions fired from within its internationally recognized territory and Ukraine can do the same for targets all the way into the Ural Mountains in Russia.
Ukraine’s dispatchable electricity generation capacity is now probably 1/3 its pre-war level.[i] To put that measuring stick of destruction in a Texan perspective, think about Winter Storm Uri in 2021. At the peak of the event, the ERCOT grid lost about half the proportion of generation capacity that Ukraine has and yet we still suffered a nearly weeklong blackout in many parts of Texas, causing many deaths and massive economic damage before power came back on.[ii]
The situation in Ukraine is far worse and the timeline of recovery much more uncertain. Texans had to cope with less than 7 days of Mother Nature, while Ukrainians confront more than 1,300 days of full-scale aggression by Mother Russia with no end in sight.
As the threat continues, frontline states increasingly focus on resilience. For instance, utilities in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are now taking physical measures to harden power substations and other important infrastructure. Ukrainian utilities and communities are combining improved air defenses, physical hardening of infrastructure, and distributed generation to combat Russia’s destruction campaign.
It’s going to be a great discussion on how we can ensure the lights stay on in the face of challenging weather and relentless human adversaries. Thank you for being here with us today!
[i] Gabriel Collins and Kenneth B. Medlock, III, “Ukraine’s Electricity Sector: Urgency and Resilience in a Time of War” (Houston: Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, August 14, 2024), https://doi.org/10.25613/BC9H-J996.
[ii] https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/ercot-froze-february-2021-what-happened-why-did-it-happen-can-it-happen-again
Frequently asked questions
Why is Russia attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure?
Russia attacks Ukraine’s electricity and gas systems to ruin the country’s industrial capacity and try to break its civilian population’s will to resist. Gabriel Collins estimates that Ukraine’s dispatchable electricity generation capacity is now probably 1/3 of its pre-war level, a far deeper loss than Texas suffered during Winter Storm Uri.
Why is Ukraine striking Russian oil refineries and gas facilities?
Ukraine targets Russia’s oil and gas systems because they are the economic center of gravity that funds the Kremlin’s war machine. Both sides now have mass-production deep strike capabilities, and Ukraine can reach targets as far as the Ural Mountains. Collins suggests the Russian power grid may be next and expects tumultuous months ahead.
How many drones does Russia launch at Ukraine in its largest attacks?
Russia launches 600-800 drones and dozens of missiles on its biggest nights of strikes against Ukraine. Ukraine can now muster perhaps half that number for its own mass strikes. Russia can hit targets anywhere in Ukraine from its internationally recognized territory, while Ukraine can strike targets all the way into Russia’s Ural Mountains.
How does Ukraine’s power loss compare with the Texas blackout during Winter Storm Uri?
Ukraine’s power loss is far worse than what Texas endured during Winter Storm Uri in 2021. At Uri’s peak, the ERCOT grid lost about half the proportion of generation capacity Ukraine has lost, yet Texas still suffered a nearly weeklong blackout. Ukrainians face more than 1,300 days of full-scale aggression with no end in sight.
How are Ukraine and its neighbors protecting power grids from attack?
Ukrainian utilities and communities combine improved air defenses, physical hardening of infrastructure, and distributed generation to counter Russia’s destruction campaign. Frontline states are also focusing on resilience: utilities in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are taking physical measures to harden power substations and other important infrastructure against the growing threat.
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