Collins Research Portal

Full Presentation–Download Here

Please cite as: Gabriel Collins, “Global Energy Transition in the 2020s: Managing Externalities Takes Center Stage,” EarthxEnergy: Responsible Energy Acquisition Conference, 23 October 2020, Houston, TX

Summary

—We’ve been in an “energy transition” for the past 200 years, but…devices and systems that produce and consume energy are analog—change is already underway but will likely take longer than we want it to

—Energy geopolitics are not going anywhere—but we’ll experience them in some new forms because lower-carbon energy sources like renewables and nuclear tend to “upfront” the critical material inputs.

—The world will likely continue on a path of greater electrification, given electricity’s local cleanliness at point of use and the fungibility of generation (i.e. an electric motor is the ultimate “multi-fuel” motor, capable of using electrons from coal, gas, oil, nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, and anything else able to spin a dyno).

—Legacy matters, scale matters, cost matters (intimately related to the first two factors), and reliability matters

uRetiring baseload energy sources in favor of intermittent generators is a deed very likely to result in punishment through blackouts, electricity price spikes, and unintended consequences such as greater private generator use and liquid fuel demand (think China 2004).

—The most profound change will be accomplished at the local and national levels

—It’s a bumpy road ahead with massive uncertainty—so let’s buckle up!