Wanted to re-surface a piece my colleague Michelle Foss and I wrote in January, which has become even more relevant given events in Ukraine, China, at COP27, and beyond over the past 10 months.
Online report accessible here
PDF downloadable here
“The past 10 years marked stage 1 of the global energy system’s mega-transect through the energy transition valley of death—initial scale up and fast progress downhill to the valley floor. Stage 2, the “valley floor”—which includes system disruptions and more complete public understanding of (and potential backlash to) the economic costs of the energy transition— is unfolding now and will intensify during the next several years.
Stage 3, ascending the valley’s far wall, begins beyond 2025 and will feature an uncertain confluence of new technologies (such as small modular nuclear reactors) reaching commerciality, policy resets such as carbon taxes, and economic and supply chain burdens that, by that point, will have already imprinted their tangible and psychological impacts firmly into energy consumers and producers alike. Accordingly, what happens between now and the late 2020s, in all likelihood, will fundamentally determine the failure or success of an accelerated energy transition.”
Suggested Citation: Collins, Gabriel and Michelle Michot Foss. 2022. The Global Energy Transition’s Looming Valley of Death. Baker Institute Report no. 01.27.22. Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, Houston, Texas.
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