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Overview: The document analyzes the potential consequences of India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty on energy, food, and water security. ​

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IWT Suspension is Historically Unprecedented ​

• The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was signed in 1960 and has survived multiple conflicts. ​
• The treaty was suspended in 2025 following a Kashmir massacre, marking a significant historical shift.

Reportedly Fast-Tracked Projects That Could Alter Indus Basin Flows ​

• Several hydroelectric projects on the Chenab River are being fast-tracked, with capacities ranging from 540 MW to 1856 MW.
• These projects include both run-of-river and conventional storage types, potentially impacting water flow to Pakistan.

Why Do New Dam Projects Matter? ​

• The IWT traditionally allowed only limited storage capacity for hydro power plants. ​
• New projects could divert water that Pakistan is entitled to under the IWT, affecting its water security.

Plausible Downstream Effects of Dams in Monsoon-Dependent Location ​

• Reduced water flow from dams can have significant downstream effects, particularly in monsoon-dependent regions.

Indus Flow Reduction Risk is Not Theoretical

• Reports indicate extreme low outbound water flow from the Salal Dam into the Chenab River, affecting Pakistan. ​

Potential Energy Impacts

• Key power plants in Pakistan rely on the Indus River system, accounting for about one-third of the country’s dispatchable generation capacity. ​
• Disruptions could lead to reduced power production and increased reliance on diesel generators, causing pollution and financial strain.

Potential Food Impacts

• Pakistan’s agriculture is heavily reliant on the Indus Valley, which is crucial for grain production.
• Reduced water flow could force Pakistan to import staple grains, straining government finances and affecting food accessibility. ​

Key Sensitivities

• Approximately 1600 m³ of water is required to grow one tonne of grain, highlighting the impact of water diversions on agriculture.

Thank You

• The author welcomes feedback and notes that the research will continue to evolve with ongoing events.

Understanding the Indus River System

Upper river reaches flowing through Indian territory provide the water for the critical lifeline that sustains life in Pakistan’s hot, dry lowlands.

Importance of the Indus in Energy and Food Security

The river system is pivotal for watering crops and cooling powerplants.